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COVID-19: why does the death curve continue to rise while cases have started to decline?

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In recent weeks, the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 It has suffered a slow but sustained increase, which contrasts with a recent slight decrease in the contagion curve.

The daily number of deceased is around 200, taking into account that at the beginning of the third wave this figure averaged 40. In the case of infectionsafter reaching 50 thousand a day a couple of weeks ago, they have begun to decline and currently there are 15 thousand on average.

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Ministry of Health reports a slowdown in infections nationwide in the last week

However, the number of deaths daily has not exceeded the maximum reached in previous waves (228 in the first and 250 in the second). The same cannot be said for infectionssince this number has almost quintupled (8,700 in the first 9,500 in the second).

In this regard, the medical epidemiologist César Cárcamo explained that since the arrival of omicron to the country, the number of infections It was increasing exponentially to the point that a large part of the population has already been infected and the degree of susceptibility has been decreasing. That would explain the decrease in cases.

Regarding the increase in deaths, he said that “people who become infected do not get sick right away, but there is a period of development of the disease”.

“Many of them are cured, but others get complicated and end up being hospitalized. Ultimately, some die., he added. That would be the reason why we still do not see a decrease in deaths.

READ ALSO: COVID-19: average cost of antigen tests increased 21% in just one week

For his part, Percy Mayta-Tristán, a physician and researcher at the Universidad Científica del Sur, told Trade that this agrees with what has been seen in other countries, where the omicron variant generated curves deaths Y infections which took between 4 to 5 weeks to reach its peak, and then begin to decline.

It has been seen that the process for a patient to die is not the same as for the one who became infected. the peak of deaths usually appears two weeks after the arrival of the peak of cases”, he specified.

For this reason, the specialist said that it is expected that the curve of deaths has not yet descended and will remain on the rise for at least a few more weeks.

READ ALSO: What happens if a company denies medical leave to a worker infected with Covid-19?

don’t let your guard down

Both experts highlighted the importance of getting vaccinated with the booster dose in order to be better prepared to face possible contagion with omicronas well as not relaxing biosecurity measures.

It is very clear that people with three doses have had milder symptoms than those who have the full vaccination schedule. We have to continue with masks in closed places, prioritize interaction in open places and guarantee greater ventilation”, said Mayta-Tristán.

READ ALSO: COVID-19: citizens who completed vaccination with Sinopharm can receive a third dose of AstraZeneca, recalls the Minsa

More than the third wave

  • According to data from the Ministry of Health, positivity in molecular and antigen tests is on the decline.
  • occupation of ICU beds is increasing. Experts indicated that in this case the same thing happens as in the curve of deaths.

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