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Third COVID-19 wave: CDC estimates that 127 thousand people will be hospitalized in the worst scenario

Lima, January 12, 2022Updated on 01/12/2022 02:41 pm

The executive director of Public Health Surveillance of the National Center for Epidemiology, Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) of the Ministry of Health (minsa), César Munayco, estimated that about 127 thousand people would be hospitalized for coronavirus in the worst scenario of the third wave of the COVID-19 in the country.

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“We are talking about more or less 84,000 hospitalized in the mild scenario up to 127,000 in the severe scenario. The same with ICU, from 2 thousand we can go up to approximately 4 thousand. These scenarios, it is important to highlight, are being updated as more information is obtained on the evolution of the pandemic in the country and other countries, and this is being adjusted”, he specified in statements to Latina.

Above all, it is key here that it is adjusted for the progress of vaccination because we know that if a person has two or three doses, the risks are much lower, then they are adjusted every week with the information that is collected at the national level”, added.

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At another time, he referred that the scenarios foreseen by the Minsa serve to plan how to act in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. These scenarios allow us, for example, to assess whether I have for those hospitalized or for those who are going to enter the ICU a number of beds, in the mild scenario how much would I need, in the moderate or severe scenario how much would I need. These scenarios are basic for planning the response”, he explained.

PEAK OF CONTAGIONS

Regarding when the country would reach the peak of COVID-19 infections, Munayco estimated that in the case of Metropolitan Lima and Callao it could be at the end of January and beginning of February. While at the national level it would take a little longer, maybe in March.

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“At the national level it is much more difficult because the pandemic does not behave in a similar way in all regions. We have just seen that the explosive increase occurred in Lima, but already in these weeks that have passed, the increase is already being seen in other places“, he pointed.

“The national curve is the sum of everything that happens in all the regions. We at least estimate that in the area where they have begun a rapid increase in cases of Lima, for example, it is most likely that the peak will probably be reached at the end of January or the beginning of February. As a country it’s probably a little bit more, suddenly March, but that varies according to behavior”, he pointed out.

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